Predictive Modeling of Nigeria’s Currency in Circulation Using X-12 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Method

In Nigeria, the average monthly quantity of currency in circulation (CIC) has increased by 269 billion nairas, reaching 2.13 trillion as of 2019 and 2.41 trillion as of 2020. The current value of currency in circulation is expected to be 2.88 trillion naira. The economy of Nigeria is impacted by the seasonal fluctuations in its currency, and it is unavoidable that the economy would need to be adjusted. The purpose of this study was to adjust the seasonal effect of eight days to Easter and Muslim holidays on CIC, model and predict the CIC in Nigeria using the United State Census Bureau's X-12 ARIMA Seasonal adjustment software. The data utilized in the study was the monthly amount of money in circulation that was taken from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Bulletin between January 2012 and March 2022. Natural logarithm was used to standardize the data, and series seasonality was removed using seasonal differencing. Based on these data, it is clear that X-12-ARIMA (2 1 1)(0 1 1) is the most accurate forecasting approach for Nigeria's CIC. The money in circulation in Nigeria from April 2022 through December 2022 will rise at a positive rate of 2.8% growth rate each month, with a predicted monthly mean CIC of 3.40 trillion by the end of the year 2022, according to this method's predictions. This is the first study on modeling and forecast of CIC in Nigeria that have utilize the United State Census Bureau X-12-ARIMA software, the findings can be extrapolated to the coming year, Nigerians may want to get ready for an increase in the amount of money in circulation during this time.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

An Assessment of Public Transport Security and Safety: An Examination of Lagos Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Nigeria

This paper aims to assess the security and safety of public transport in the context of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Lagos Nigeria. This study takes into cognizance the BRT routes with the operational facilities cum public perception of the public transport security and safety. The study entails exposition of risks and challenges of public transport as part of literature.  It examines the risks and challenges in public transport as it relates to passengers experience in respect with the state of BRT in the study area. The focus of this study is the examination of Lagos BRT, the study of the Mile 12 – Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS) corridor. A total number of 153 respondents participated in the survey. From the survey, over 110 responsdents which is more than 70 per cent has not been victim or witness the various incidents either in BRT bus. A Correlation Analysis test is used to test the relationship in the Use of BRT for trip made and other choices. The P value is 0.523, which is greater than 0.005 (P> 0.05) and the decision is to accept Ho. Also, the test result shown that there is positive linear relationship between distance from the BRT bus stops from offices/homes and threat in BRT bus stops as the P value is 0.629, this is greater 0.05 (P>0.05). However, after observing the p value(s) for ‘Occurence’ between the rate of being attacked and being threatened, it is clear that the two groups do not differ (p>0.05).  P value gives conclusive evidence that there is no difference in rate of being attacked and being threatened. Based on this study, there is need to address the risks and challenges identified, this would pen-ultimately posit Lagos BRT to overcome some of these forces that are undermining its safety and security challenges.  The recommendation on the real time devices must be adopted and implemented, this would redefine the entire Lagos BRT as a means of public transport. Key words: Public Transport, Security, Safety, Lagos BR

Seasonality in hyperglycemic emergencies in a Health Facility in Sub-Saharan Africa: The roles of geographic location, infection, and knowledge of diabetes mellitus status

Hyperglycemic emergencies (HEs) are acute complications of diabetes mellitus and they carry high morbidity and mortality. Studies have reported a seasonal pattern in the frequency of occurrence of both types 1 and 2 diabetes mellitus and even Gestational Diabetes Mellitus. No such association has been suggested for HEs. The study was conducted at the Asokoro District Hospital, Located in Abuja, Nigeria to examine a seasonal pattern in the frequency of hyperglycemic emergencies. The initial observation of an obvious fluctuation in the number of admitted cases of hyperglycemic emergencies motivated this prospective study which ran for a period of six years. It involved collecting the relevant information using a questionnaire from all HEs patients admitted to the medical ward from the first of January, 2008 to the 31st of December, 2013. Required investigations were done. The precipitating factors for HEs were looked for. The number of cases per month was noted for each year. The Statistical package used for analysis was STATA version 11. Round the year Abuja Climatic changes were monitored on the website of the Nigerian Meteorological station. Four hundred and fifty-one (451) patients with hyperglycemic emergency were enrolled for this study. Most of the patients, (55%), were in the middle-age bracket. Fifty-six per cent (56%), were not previously known to be living with diabetes mellitus. Infections, particularly of the respiratory and gastrointestinal tracks, were the commonest precipitating factors. Variation in the frequency of HEs was observed, with two peaks: one in April and a smaller peak in December. There is seasonal variation in the frequency of presentation of Hyperglycemic emergencies. This may have been influenced by exogenous factors such as geographic location, infection, and the fact that most of the patients never knew they had diabetes mellitus

HOUSEHOLDS’ TRIP-CHAINING BEHAVIOUR: EVENING INTERVENING STOPS ACROSS RESIDENTIAL AREAS IN IBADAN, NIGERIA

The study examined the stop-making behaviour of households during evening commute across residential zones in Ibadan, Nigeria. 1,794 commuting household heads were selected from 15 wards in the city. Significant relationships were established between evening intervening stops and most socioeconomic characteristics. Moreover, a significant relationship was found between residential zone and time added to evening commute, while distance added to evening commute varied across the three residential zones. Unlike most previous studies, the study came up with some important findings that are capable of enhancing our understanding of the trip-chaining behaviour of households with no access to private vehicles

Computer Aided Grain Aeration Management: an Antidote to Grain Deterioration in Metal Silo

Aeration is very important for good grain storage as it helps to maintain uniform grain temperatures, minimizes moisture migration, and prevents quality loss of stored grain. The temperature of grain stock was monitored with the aid of temperature sensors installed inside the silo bins. Each silo contained twenty sensors located on five probes at different sections of the silo bin. Grain was received to experimented metal silos at 300C. The parameters for grain before reception were 1% broken grain, 1% mould, 1%  foreign matters, 68- 75KG/HL weight and 12% moisture content. Grain temperature rose to 450C within three weeks of storage. Temperature readings were taken in the morning and at evening times. Aeration system (fans) was operated several times, each time for long hours (≥5hours) enough to equalize temperature throughout the entire grain mass. Aeration fans were used to rapidly cool grain to 250C and then held it between 25 - 410C for over a year. The power requirement increased as air flow rate and grain depth increased. Aeration fans were controlled automatically from the operating control room while dehumidifiers were installed on the aeration fans. Loss recorded at manually operated metal silo was compared with the one from the silo monitored with computer software developed. While aeration could be used to lower grain temperature, minor changes took place on the moisture content of the grain mass. Loss was reduced to < 1% as against 5%. Aeration can be better monitored economically with the use of a computer system

Examination of On-Street Parking and Traffic Congestion Problems in Lokoja

Parking and traffic congestion is synonymous to each other because failure to meet parking demand of people in a city lead to on-street parking that results to traffic congestion. Traffic congestion is a condition on road networks that occurs as use increases, and is characterized by slower speeds, longer trip times, and increased vehicular queuing. The availability of less space in urban areas has increased demand for parking space especially in central business area. Inadequate off-street parking in most of our urban centres has metamorphosed to the problem of on-street parking coupled with inadequate traffic management commonly experienced today in most Nigerian cities. In view of the above, this research work examined the menace of on-street parking and traffic congestion problems in Lokoja, Nigeria. The study was conducted using questionnaires and field observation to collect the required data at the locations/corridors in the city where on-street parking and traffic congestion were prominent and also, adequate survey of the traffic devices in the locations of study was also conducted to determine it functionality. Four hundred and fifty one (451) questionnaires were administered to the shop-owners, one hundred and seventy four (174) to the parked vehicle-owners and one hundred and two (102) to the commuters, to make a total of seven hundred and twenty seven (727) research samples. Finding revealed that inadequate parking, infectiveness of traffic devices, absences of loading and offloading bays etc have caused on-street parking and traffic congestion in Lokoja. To reduce the menace, policy measures are recommended among which are; institution of enforcement of traffic rules and regulations by disciplined law enforcement agents, relocation of certain activities that caused on-street parking and introduction of intelligent transport system which make use of sustainable devices such as Bluetooth and other communication/mobile devices, traffic management improvement and provision of off-street parking facilities in the city plan. Key word: Transportation, on-street parking, traffic management, urban center, traffic congestion, Lokoj

Casting and Performance Evaluation of Pump Impeller and Housing using Local Raw Materials

Casting of pump impeller and its housing was carried out using locally available materials. Performance evaluation was conducted to show if the locally produced pump impeller and its housing could be compared favourably in terms of performances with the imported ones. The sand used for the moulding of the pump housing and impeller was blended in the sand mixer with bentonite, wood dust, water and others as desired in their correct proportions (Bentonite-3.5%, Water 3.5%; Wood dust 4.2%). Pouring of the molten metal unto the assembled mould was done at a temperature of about 1380oC.  Portable optical pyrometer was used to measure the temperatures.  The charge make ups was 135kg of cast iron scraps, 0.58% FeSi, 0.035% Femn and 0.0045% Inoculants.   Replica of the two components were carefully produced in wooden patterns to make the sand mould easy, while the casting was made using grey cast iron because of the need to machine it to its final dimensions with ease. The results obtained from the various test carried out shows no significant difference from the standard result of the imported ones

Phenytoin–levetiracetam adjunctive treatment-induced neurotoxicity and deregulation of cholinergic neurotransmission with evidence of neurocognitive impairment in male Wistar rats

Introduction: The effects of chronic administration of phenytoin (PHT), levetiracetam (LEV), and PHT + LEV adjunctive treatments were examined on the cognitive functions of male rats.Methods: Twenty-eight male Wistar rats (150–180 g) were randomized into 4 groups (N = 7). Groups I–IV received daily intraperitoneal administration of normal saline (0.2 ml), therapeutic doses of PHT (50 mg/kg), LEV (50 mg/kg) or sub-therapeutic dose of PHT (25 mg/kg) and LEV (25 mg/kg) combination, respectively, for 28 days. Thereafter, the animals were subjected to behavioral assessment and evaluation of the activities of acetylcholinesterase, lipid peroxidation, and lastly the morphological evaluation of the brain. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results were presented as mean ± SEM in graphs or tables, while the level of significance was taken at p &lt; 0.05.Results: Working &amp; spatial memory, exploratory activities, and motor-coordination indices were significantly (p = 0.0099) impaired with a reduction in the frontal lobe and hippocampal weight following PHT and PHT + LEV adjunctive treatments. The frontal lobe and hippocampal activities of acetylcholinesterase increased significantly (p = 0.0437) following PHT and PHT + LEV adjunctive treatment. The concentrations of malondialdehyde increased significantly (p = 0.0473) in PHT, LEV, and PHT + LEV compared with the control. There was disorganization in the histoarchitectural profile with chromatolysis, hyalinization, and neural vacuolation in the pre-frontal cortex, hippocampus, and cerebellar tissue, especially in the PHT + LEV treated rats.Conclusion: Impairment of cognitive functions following PHT and PHT + LEV adjunctive treatments may be attributable to the deregulation of cholinergic transmission and neurotoxicity

Development of a Permeable Meter for Mould Industries Using Locally Sourced Materials

One of the major factors for production of quality casting is the control of properties of moulds and cores to make them uniform and consistent quality. Permeable meter is used for the determination of the venting ability of sand moulds and cores. This testing equipment is being imported to the country as at today. The cost is high, and they are not readily available to foundry operators.Hence there is need to design and develop a permeable meter using locally sourced materials and make it available at an affordable price, thereby improving foundry technology in Nigeria. Two different method could be used to measure permeability of sand; determination of air flow rate and measurement of pressure difference between the orifice and the top of sand specimen. The first method was adopted in the development of the Permeable meter. On testing, the values of permeability measured using the equipment was comparable to the results obtained from thestandardized imported one. The cost of production was 30% of the cost of imported one, not even now that exchange rate to international currency has skyrocketed. The work has incorporated design and fabrication principles that resulted in a relatively cheap product that can be constructed locally by an average Fabricator and Technicia

Role of Pre-eclamptic Toxaemia or Eclampsia in Hypertensive Women Attending Cardiac Clinic of Ahmadu Bello University Teaching Hospital Zaria, Nigeria

Background: Patients with pre-eclampsia and eclampsia constitute a special high risk group for future hypertension. They require a long term follow up to be able to detect and treat emerging hypertension early enough to prevent complications. Unfortunately, this is not so. This study was undertaken to find out the incidence of history of pre-eclamptic toxaemia (PET) in our female hypertensive patients attending cardiac clinic and to also determine the incidence of complications of hypertension in those with previous history of PET. Methods: Fifty consecutive female hypertensive patients seen in cardiac clinic were recruited. Detailed history including full obstetric and family history was taken. A full clinical examination was done including blood pressure and a search for complications of hypertension. Findings were then analyzed and various frequencies determined. Results: Forty-nine patients were studied. The mean age was 47.29\ub111.46 years. The mean SBP, DBP and MAP were 143.18\ub125.05, 90.49\ub114.19 and 108.12\ub116.71mmHg respectively. Between the last child birth and the time of established hypertension in those who had PET ranged from 3-25 years. Sixteen, (32.7%) of the 49 patients had history of PET and 7(43.75%) of these 16 patients had complications of hypertension. Conclusion: The incidence of history of PET in our female hypertensive patients attending cardiac clinic is significant (32.7%). Also the 43.8% incidence of complications of hypertension seen in those patients with history of PET in this study is high. PET patients, therefore, constitute a special risk group for future hypertension. Therefore collaboration between the Obstetricians and the Cardiologists is important for patients with PET and eclampsia.Contexte: Les patientes ayant une tox\ue9mie gravidique ou une \ue9clampsie sont un groupe \ue0 haut risque d\u92hypertension ult\ue9rieure. Elles n\ue9cessitent un suivi a long terme afin de d\ue9tecter et traiter une hypertension \ue9mergente suffisamment t\uf4t afin de pr\ue9venir les complications. Cela ne se passe malheureusement pas ainsi. Cette \ue9tude a \ue9t\ue9 initi\ue9e afin de d\ue9terminer l\u92incidence des ant\ue9c\ue9dents de tox\ue9mie gravidique chez nos patientes hypertendues consultant \ue0 la clinique de cardiologie. Il s\u92agissait \ue9galement de d\ue9terminer l\u92incidence des complications hypertensive chez celles pr\ue9sentant un ant\ue9c\ue9dent de tox\ue9mie gravidique. M\ue9thode: Nous avons recrute de mani\ue8re cons\ue9cutive cinquante patientes hypertendues re\ue7ues a la clinique de cardiologie. L\u92histoire de la maladie a \ue9t\ue9 d\ue9taill\ue9e en insistant sur les ant\ue9c\ue9dents obst\ue9tricaux et familiaux. Un examen clinique complet a \ue9t\ue9 effectue incluant la mesure de la pression art\ue9rielle et la recherche de complications de l\u92hypertension.les donn\ue9es recueillies ont \ue9t\ue9 ensuite analys\ue9es et les diff\ue9rentes fr\ue9quences d\ue9termin\ue9es. R\ue9sultats: Quarante neuf patientes ont \ue9t\ue9 \ue9tudi\ue9es. L\u92\ue2ge moyen \ue9tait de 47,29\ub111,46 ans. Les moyennes de pression art\ue9rielle systolique, diastolique et moyenne \ue9taient respectivement de 143,18\ub125,05 ; 90,49\ub114,19 and 108,12\ub116,71mmHg. Le d\ue9lai entre le dernier accouchement et le diagnostic d\u92hypertension chez celles qui avaient un ant\ue9c\ue9dent de tox\ue9mie gravidique s\u92\ue9tendait de 3 a 25 ans. Seize (32,7%) des 49 patientes avaient un ant\ue9c\ue9dent de tox\ue9mie gravidique et 7 (43,75%) ; parmi eux 16 ont eu des complications hypertensives. Conclusion: L\u92incidence des ant\ue9c\ue9dents de tox\ue9mie gravidique chez nos patientes hypertendues consultant a la clinique de cardiologie est significative (32,7%). L\u92incidence de complications hypertensive (43,8%) observ\ue9e dans le groupe de patientes ayant un ant\ue9c\ue9dent de tox\ue9mie gravidique dans cette \ue9tude est \ue9lev\ue9e. Les patientes pr\ue9sentant une tox\ue9mie gravidique constituent de ce fait un groupe particulier \ue0 risque pouvant d\ue9velopper une hypertension art\ue9rielle. La collaboration entre obst\ue9triciens et cardiologues est de ce fait importante pour les patients ayant une tox\ue9mie gravidique et une \ue9clampsie